2010 Top Ten futures market forecast: crude oil will soon 100 U.S. dollars / barrel
At 10:22 on January 3, 2010 Source: http://www.shiweilai.com shiweilai
Ten New Year's Day in 2009 to undertake forecasts, seriously earnest in another mixed year, festivals map a relaxed, be regarded as a fixed entertainment bar.
1, Key words: stock index futures. This is a line under a modern financial products, while others say that it is chocolate, while others say that it is poison. This is reminiscent of the Tang Dynasty Empress Wu, tomatoes have just introduced to China, due to the terrible red, no one would dare to eat. Fan fruit was called, and now that tomatoes, an aboriginal word, highlight the great country of thinking and attitude. But whether you like it or not, stock index futures are prattling about 3 years later, away from the people is becoming increasingly closer.
2, Key words: gold. The most numerous accolades in 2009 is not only thanks to its golden gift from God "Prosperous income antiques, chaotic possession of gold" of the ancient charm is still not diminished, which also confirmed from the side of a turbulent 2009. Gold in May 2010 may occur before a larger correction, and then remove the straight one goal: to 1700 U.S. dollars / ounce.
3, Key words: crude oil. Crude oil out of a textbook 1-2-3 wave structure of market, not the end of the current three waves up. 50% of China's crude oil supply needs to provide foreign countries, look at our car sales growth, we know that crude oil demand for the short term rigidity of Xiabu Qu. Perhaps next year's UN climate conference, etc. to reach a binding agreement? We will soon see the 100 U.S. dollars / barrel this price.
4, Key words: dollar index. It's like a symphony orchestra conductor, the capital market had to follow it moved around a small stick. U.S. Dollar Index since 1992 is now at the bottom of the third phase, in addition to the U.S. officials stressed that a strong dollar in the mouth, we also do not see the practical steps to save the U.S. dollar. If the Federal Reserve raising interest rates will give U.S. dollars marked with a shot in the arm, after which will lower, as the interests of greater than face the reality. U.S. dollar index will be in 2010 in a very bizarre trend of close to 70 line.
5, Key words: non-ferrous metals. Falling together with a continuous rise in market, non-ferrous metals is one such character straight to go really simple Mody, or our brains are too complicated? Gann said that 100 years ago, time is the price, price is time, but we always want to question them separately Bale. In addition to a leader in copper, others such as aluminum, zinc, there is still considerable upside, of course, have the time, at least 2010 bar.
6, Key words: agricultural products (000061, stock bar). 2009, agricultural products (000061, stock bar) compared to other bulk commodities rose a more moderate, in addition to benefit from the basic balance between supply and demand, the busy resolving the financial crisis aftermath of the Wall Street tycoons are betting the farm the size of the above energy is also small. Over the next year, similar to index funds the possibility of further large-scale access to a substantial increase in agricultural products, we have white sugar (Information, Quotes) (information, Quote), cotton (Information, Quotes) (Information, Quotes ), coffee, cocoa products they see on their soft-reappear.
7, Keywords: iron ore. The national interest, trade disputes, the country back into the China spy case, and so a series of contemporary China's most important political and economic elements, the whole piece of red rock in the back, which staged a big show every year in mid-new, you have to spend look at doing something unless you not care about the price of rebar, or steel plates to worry about the stock. Clear seller's market, the rich do not live there carry goods, you have to talk about this price is not fair, in addition to becoming the holder of mine, whom reasoning go?
8, Keywords: CTA. 2009 Futures ABCD classification has been completed, into the A class, 18 futures companies, regulators are expected to be operational in innovative pilot projects and support. Account management, financial management and a series of commodity futures investment adviser (CTA) mode may enter the actual operation phase, which is to change the current futures companies simply relying on fee income to survive, the business will go a long way toward identical.
9, Keywords: commodity index. Three futures exchanges in accordance with the work plan for next year Gejia pushed the possibility of a commodity futures market is very high, silver, coke, pig varieties are being prepared, in addition to crude oil, the Chinese futures market from building a commodities index has more close. Commodity index has a very high significance of macro-guidance, while market participants can also have a good directional guideline.
10, Keywords: option. If the successful launch of stock index futures, the next largest category of derivatives will be the option. Options market capacity will be very huge, but participants need of funds also can be very small, the exchange would be Ge Jia areas of concern.
2010年1月7日星期四
Yuan five years flow in Southeast Asia
Yuan five years flow in Southeast Asia
http://www.maozdong.com maozdong.com
At 08:41 on January 3, 2010
Expert: Association of Southeast Asian Nations will become the first stop of the Internationalization of RMB
With ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the formal signing of the Chiang Mai Initiative multilateral agreements, the scale of 120 billion U.S. dollars in Asian regional foreign exchange reserve was formally established and is operational. This indicates that the Asian financial cooperation and a major step forward. China - ASEAN Free Trade Area launched, the ability to speed up the yuan into an international format? Business if you can get a real good then?
"ASEAN market will become the footwear industry in Guangdong in 2010 to develop the most potential market in Southeast Asia as China's own brands compete in the worldwide market, the first stop." China - ASEAN Free Trade Area launched a comprehensive, Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association told reporters that the Secretary-General Wu Hang .
Most cattle business:
Restaurant only yuan clearing
"If you do, when foreign trade can be settled like the yuan!" This is the interview with journalists in West Shoes Square, many merchants say the inner words. West Tongde shoe base manager Ling Zhiqiang told reporters that some of the stronger foreign traders, especially those who identify themselves with China's shoe has changed the foreign currency clearing methods. Ling Zhiqiang said, "I have here received foreign orders will be charged RMB, U.S. dollars, euro step aside!" Has become the West Side Square, most cattle shoe merchant in 2009 shouted the words of the most lung power.
"We hope that the RMB settlement of a pilot covered by private enterprise!" Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association general secretary Wu course, told reporters that the RMB settlement of Guangdong enterprises are indeed a great good news, but at the moment the settlement pilot enterprises are state-owned enterprises, while private enterprises account for Guangdong than half the number of enterprises, private enterprises also want to share in future.
Foreign firms:
RMB settlement to avoid loss of
Now settled in Singapore, mainly businessmen Lu mang take care of China - ASEAN trade, he was in the domestic procurement of clothing, footwear and other daily necessities, and then commissioned the Guangzhou Sai Wan Road, exporters of goods sent to Singapore. In an interview when the newspaper interview, said the network, Singapore and China to do business, most people still use the U.S. dollar clearing, which has become a fixed settlement patterns.
In his view, what the currency is a means of settlement. The current settlement, in the Singapore dollar, the yuan this bridge between the more U.S. dollars, resulting in no need of foreign exchange losses, if the dollar signs of trouble may also bring huge losses on exchange. Thus, including in Singapore, including businessmen hope that we can try to RMB.
"But now is not the time." Lu Mang said the main reason is inconvenient, it is difficult from the first Singapore bank to get enough yuan; second, the renminbi clearing banks are too few; and third, many of China's foreign trade enterprises do not have a pilot with the identity of the RMB settlement. "China - ASEAN Free Trade Area is established, only expect a faster pace in the pace of internationalization."
Hard to do
Southeast Asian market
"China - ASEAN Free Trade Area of the boot is definitely good news." Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association, Gui-ling, said that ASEAN is an emerging market, a large population, there is great potential spending power, for the production of low-end shoe company in Guangdong is a very good market. Footwear in Guangdong accounts for 50% of China's output, accounting for 30% of the world, more than 10,000 pairs of shoes enterprises are eyeing the Southeast Asian market.
"Southeast Asian market is the force behind most of the enterprises in 2010 to do a market." Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association's Secretary-General Wu course revealed that, before many of Guangdong Shoes OEM production to West Shoes Square, for example, 80 % of the product is OEM, and only the processing fees earned; However, since the free trade area launched, the Southeast Asia as China's own brands compete in the worldwide market, the first stop. Wu Hang revealed that after 2010, including the Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association, including Chamber of Commerce will organize a large number of domestic firms at home to Southeast Asia market research, intends to cooperate with local businesses, and local businesses dock, open the sales.
RMB internationalization
Can be divided into three steps
"Southeast Asia will be the first to accept the yuan." Economist Professor Yang Fan of China University of Political Science at the time of interview, said the economies which the close economic ties with China, higher the degree of acceptance of the pace of the yuan would be faster. At present, the RMB settlement in China, Hong Kong has become a reality, as China - ASEAN Free Trade Area of the establishment of Southeast Asian countries will gradually accept the yuan and, finally, Japan and South Korea, the formation of the ASEAN 10 +3 accept yuan pattern. The future, as China's economy, productivity continued to improve the RMB is still room for 20% of the expected appreciation. As long as there is room for appreciation of the surrounding economies, will be happy to hold the yuan. "I expect five years, the renminbi will be unimpeded within the framework of South-East Asia."
But for the free convertibility of RMB in Southeast Asia, Professor Yang Fan disagreed. "Free convertibility of the RMB has been increased the risk of speculation is not conducive to financial stability. In addition, the RMB freely convertible in Southeast Asia also provides the opportunity of money-laundering, some corrupt elements may use its transfer of domestic assets, so whether the Renminbi freely in Southeast Asia exchange it is necessary to consider carefully. "
http://www.maozdong.com maozdong.com
At 08:41 on January 3, 2010
Expert: Association of Southeast Asian Nations will become the first stop of the Internationalization of RMB
With ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the formal signing of the Chiang Mai Initiative multilateral agreements, the scale of 120 billion U.S. dollars in Asian regional foreign exchange reserve was formally established and is operational. This indicates that the Asian financial cooperation and a major step forward. China - ASEAN Free Trade Area launched, the ability to speed up the yuan into an international format? Business if you can get a real good then?
"ASEAN market will become the footwear industry in Guangdong in 2010 to develop the most potential market in Southeast Asia as China's own brands compete in the worldwide market, the first stop." China - ASEAN Free Trade Area launched a comprehensive, Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association told reporters that the Secretary-General Wu Hang .
Most cattle business:
Restaurant only yuan clearing
"If you do, when foreign trade can be settled like the yuan!" This is the interview with journalists in West Shoes Square, many merchants say the inner words. West Tongde shoe base manager Ling Zhiqiang told reporters that some of the stronger foreign traders, especially those who identify themselves with China's shoe has changed the foreign currency clearing methods. Ling Zhiqiang said, "I have here received foreign orders will be charged RMB, U.S. dollars, euro step aside!" Has become the West Side Square, most cattle shoe merchant in 2009 shouted the words of the most lung power.
"We hope that the RMB settlement of a pilot covered by private enterprise!" Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association general secretary Wu course, told reporters that the RMB settlement of Guangdong enterprises are indeed a great good news, but at the moment the settlement pilot enterprises are state-owned enterprises, while private enterprises account for Guangdong than half the number of enterprises, private enterprises also want to share in future.
Foreign firms:
RMB settlement to avoid loss of
Now settled in Singapore, mainly businessmen Lu mang take care of China - ASEAN trade, he was in the domestic procurement of clothing, footwear and other daily necessities, and then commissioned the Guangzhou Sai Wan Road, exporters of goods sent to Singapore. In an interview when the newspaper interview, said the network, Singapore and China to do business, most people still use the U.S. dollar clearing, which has become a fixed settlement patterns.
In his view, what the currency is a means of settlement. The current settlement, in the Singapore dollar, the yuan this bridge between the more U.S. dollars, resulting in no need of foreign exchange losses, if the dollar signs of trouble may also bring huge losses on exchange. Thus, including in Singapore, including businessmen hope that we can try to RMB.
"But now is not the time." Lu Mang said the main reason is inconvenient, it is difficult from the first Singapore bank to get enough yuan; second, the renminbi clearing banks are too few; and third, many of China's foreign trade enterprises do not have a pilot with the identity of the RMB settlement. "China - ASEAN Free Trade Area is established, only expect a faster pace in the pace of internationalization."
Hard to do
Southeast Asian market
"China - ASEAN Free Trade Area of the boot is definitely good news." Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association, Gui-ling, said that ASEAN is an emerging market, a large population, there is great potential spending power, for the production of low-end shoe company in Guangdong is a very good market. Footwear in Guangdong accounts for 50% of China's output, accounting for 30% of the world, more than 10,000 pairs of shoes enterprises are eyeing the Southeast Asian market.
"Southeast Asian market is the force behind most of the enterprises in 2010 to do a market." Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association's Secretary-General Wu course revealed that, before many of Guangdong Shoes OEM production to West Shoes Square, for example, 80 % of the product is OEM, and only the processing fees earned; However, since the free trade area launched, the Southeast Asia as China's own brands compete in the worldwide market, the first stop. Wu Hang revealed that after 2010, including the Guangdong Footwear Manufacturers Association, including Chamber of Commerce will organize a large number of domestic firms at home to Southeast Asia market research, intends to cooperate with local businesses, and local businesses dock, open the sales.
RMB internationalization
Can be divided into three steps
"Southeast Asia will be the first to accept the yuan." Economist Professor Yang Fan of China University of Political Science at the time of interview, said the economies which the close economic ties with China, higher the degree of acceptance of the pace of the yuan would be faster. At present, the RMB settlement in China, Hong Kong has become a reality, as China - ASEAN Free Trade Area of the establishment of Southeast Asian countries will gradually accept the yuan and, finally, Japan and South Korea, the formation of the ASEAN 10 +3 accept yuan pattern. The future, as China's economy, productivity continued to improve the RMB is still room for 20% of the expected appreciation. As long as there is room for appreciation of the surrounding economies, will be happy to hold the yuan. "I expect five years, the renminbi will be unimpeded within the framework of South-East Asia."
But for the free convertibility of RMB in Southeast Asia, Professor Yang Fan disagreed. "Free convertibility of the RMB has been increased the risk of speculation is not conducive to financial stability. In addition, the RMB freely convertible in Southeast Asia also provides the opportunity of money-laundering, some corrupt elements may use its transfer of domestic assets, so whether the Renminbi freely in Southeast Asia exchange it is necessary to consider carefully. "
European currency in 2010 the Department of glory can no longer
European currency in 2010 the Department of glory can no longer
http://www.maozdong.com 2010-1-7 10:18:00 maozdong.com
European Department of the currency the euro, British pound, Swiss franc rose in 2009, including the year the euro was up 2.53%, the pound rose 10.37 percent, the Swiss franc was up 3.25%. Into the year 2010, the factors that affect the European monetary system will change a lot of negative factors. Therefore, the European currency in 2010, the Department of the earlier strong upward trend, or difficult to continue.
First of all, in the past to support a strong rise in European currencies factors in 2010 will gradually weaken its role. Risk preferences because in the context of the economic crisis, with European currencies showed a close positive correlation. However, after 2010, the global economy have largely recovered, in the context of crisis, foreign exchange market and stock market are highly relevant to the operating mechanism will inevitably change, the exchange rate would no longer be fully follow the major indexes "dance." Therefore, the Department of European currencies in 2009 has been a major force in rising enough to rely on.
Secondly, the European currency in 2010, the Department has its own Achilles heel, the trend in 2010 allowed people can not overestimate. For the euro, the euro zone debt burden of some countries, it could threaten the future of the euro zone economy and the euro. The British high debt, will be the pressure in pounds on the shoulders of the stone. At the same time, the Swiss central bank intervention in currency markets the choice is still the dark clouds on the future of the Swiss franc.
According to reports, on the occasion of the end of 2009, the European Commission warned that there are half of the 16-nation euro-zone countries facing unsustainable public finance risk. The EU said Greece and Spain, the rating has been lowered, Ireland and Portugal have also received lower ratings may be a warning that if other euro-zone governments do not take timely measures, as well as a wider range of possible ratings cut. Industry insiders estimate that by 2010, euro-zone average public debt to GDP ratio will reach 84%, higher than the 2007 level increased 18 percent, exceeding the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact ceiling of 60% of the provisions, of which Germany in 2010 public debt to GDP, the ratio may reach 78%, while the eurozone's second largest economy in France in 2009 in the third quarter GDP, the ratio of public debt had jumped to a record high of 75.8%. Therefore, the euro zone may be more countries facing lower ratings in 2010 the threat, affecting the stability of the euro zone, thereby damaging the prospects for the euro.
Britain is also very heavy debt burden. United Kingdom in order to save the troubled financial and economic, the total debt burden in 2010 is expected to reach about 80%, while its fiscal deficit in 2010 could reach more than 13%. Moreover, other major countries around the world have entered the recovery from the recession, then, only the British economy in the third quarter of 2009 were still down 0.3%. Therefore, the crushing debt burdens, as well as behind the economic recovery process, will be made up of pounds do not have a solid foundation for the future of sterling in 2010 should not be overestimated.
For the Swiss franc, the future there are ups and downs. Although Switzerland does not burst the euro zone and Britain, as the heavy debt burden, but the Swiss central bank in order to prevent the importation of deflation had in March 2009 and in June the second intervention in the Swiss franc against the euro and the U.S. dollar. The latest production and import of Swiss-year price index is still negative, the consumer price index rising only from the bottom, so to enter 2010, the Swiss tradition of central bank intervention in the exchange rate continue to cast a shadow over the prospects for the Swiss franc.
In addition, the euro, the European energy policy will be constrained its future. Over the past trend of the euro and the international crude oil futures price changes, is closely related to the euro as the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate are fixed to reconcile price index, while the euro zone to reconcile the price of crude oil prices were greatly affected. But in the global economic crisis, the euro-zone economy will be in transition, especially the Copenhagen Conference, the euro-zone advocating low-carbon economy, oil consumption growth in the euro area is limited, the international crude oil futures prices and therefore are subject to space constraints, and not as the first half of 2007 and 2008, as rising violent. Thus, to reconcile the euro area price index in 2010 will not be too drastic rise in the euro zone's benchmark interest rate hike will not be too fast, not from rising interest rates in the euro more effective.
Thus, while the Department of European currencies had been in mid-2009 for some time before and after the shine, but in 2010 they face difficulties.
http://www.maozdong.com 2010-1-7 10:18:00 maozdong.com
European Department of the currency the euro, British pound, Swiss franc rose in 2009, including the year the euro was up 2.53%, the pound rose 10.37 percent, the Swiss franc was up 3.25%. Into the year 2010, the factors that affect the European monetary system will change a lot of negative factors. Therefore, the European currency in 2010, the Department of the earlier strong upward trend, or difficult to continue.
First of all, in the past to support a strong rise in European currencies factors in 2010 will gradually weaken its role. Risk preferences because in the context of the economic crisis, with European currencies showed a close positive correlation. However, after 2010, the global economy have largely recovered, in the context of crisis, foreign exchange market and stock market are highly relevant to the operating mechanism will inevitably change, the exchange rate would no longer be fully follow the major indexes "dance." Therefore, the Department of European currencies in 2009 has been a major force in rising enough to rely on.
Secondly, the European currency in 2010, the Department has its own Achilles heel, the trend in 2010 allowed people can not overestimate. For the euro, the euro zone debt burden of some countries, it could threaten the future of the euro zone economy and the euro. The British high debt, will be the pressure in pounds on the shoulders of the stone. At the same time, the Swiss central bank intervention in currency markets the choice is still the dark clouds on the future of the Swiss franc.
According to reports, on the occasion of the end of 2009, the European Commission warned that there are half of the 16-nation euro-zone countries facing unsustainable public finance risk. The EU said Greece and Spain, the rating has been lowered, Ireland and Portugal have also received lower ratings may be a warning that if other euro-zone governments do not take timely measures, as well as a wider range of possible ratings cut. Industry insiders estimate that by 2010, euro-zone average public debt to GDP ratio will reach 84%, higher than the 2007 level increased 18 percent, exceeding the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact ceiling of 60% of the provisions, of which Germany in 2010 public debt to GDP, the ratio may reach 78%, while the eurozone's second largest economy in France in 2009 in the third quarter GDP, the ratio of public debt had jumped to a record high of 75.8%. Therefore, the euro zone may be more countries facing lower ratings in 2010 the threat, affecting the stability of the euro zone, thereby damaging the prospects for the euro.
Britain is also very heavy debt burden. United Kingdom in order to save the troubled financial and economic, the total debt burden in 2010 is expected to reach about 80%, while its fiscal deficit in 2010 could reach more than 13%. Moreover, other major countries around the world have entered the recovery from the recession, then, only the British economy in the third quarter of 2009 were still down 0.3%. Therefore, the crushing debt burdens, as well as behind the economic recovery process, will be made up of pounds do not have a solid foundation for the future of sterling in 2010 should not be overestimated.
For the Swiss franc, the future there are ups and downs. Although Switzerland does not burst the euro zone and Britain, as the heavy debt burden, but the Swiss central bank in order to prevent the importation of deflation had in March 2009 and in June the second intervention in the Swiss franc against the euro and the U.S. dollar. The latest production and import of Swiss-year price index is still negative, the consumer price index rising only from the bottom, so to enter 2010, the Swiss tradition of central bank intervention in the exchange rate continue to cast a shadow over the prospects for the Swiss franc.
In addition, the euro, the European energy policy will be constrained its future. Over the past trend of the euro and the international crude oil futures price changes, is closely related to the euro as the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate are fixed to reconcile price index, while the euro zone to reconcile the price of crude oil prices were greatly affected. But in the global economic crisis, the euro-zone economy will be in transition, especially the Copenhagen Conference, the euro-zone advocating low-carbon economy, oil consumption growth in the euro area is limited, the international crude oil futures prices and therefore are subject to space constraints, and not as the first half of 2007 and 2008, as rising violent. Thus, to reconcile the euro area price index in 2010 will not be too drastic rise in the euro zone's benchmark interest rate hike will not be too fast, not from rising interest rates in the euro more effective.
Thus, while the Department of European currencies had been in mid-2009 for some time before and after the shine, but in 2010 they face difficulties.
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