European currency in 2010 the Department of glory can no longer

European currency in 2010 the Department of glory can no longer
http://www.maozdong.com 2010-1-7 10:18:00 maozdong.com


European Department of the currency the euro, British pound, Swiss franc rose in 2009, including the year the euro was up 2.53%, the pound rose 10.37 percent, the Swiss franc was up 3.25%. Into the year 2010, the factors that affect the European monetary system will change a lot of negative factors. Therefore, the European currency in 2010, the Department of the earlier strong upward trend, or difficult to continue.

First of all, in the past to support a strong rise in European currencies factors in 2010 will gradually weaken its role. Risk preferences because in the context of the economic crisis, with European currencies showed a close positive correlation. However, after 2010, the global economy have largely recovered, in the context of crisis, foreign exchange market and stock market are highly relevant to the operating mechanism will inevitably change, the exchange rate would no longer be fully follow the major indexes "dance." Therefore, the Department of European currencies in 2009 has been a major force in rising enough to rely on.

Secondly, the European currency in 2010, the Department has its own Achilles heel, the trend in 2010 allowed people can not overestimate. For the euro, the euro zone debt burden of some countries, it could threaten the future of the euro zone economy and the euro. The British high debt, will be the pressure in pounds on the shoulders of the stone. At the same time, the Swiss central bank intervention in currency markets the choice is still the dark clouds on the future of the Swiss franc.

According to reports, on the occasion of the end of 2009, the European Commission warned that there are half of the 16-nation euro-zone countries facing unsustainable public finance risk. The EU said Greece and Spain, the rating has been lowered, Ireland and Portugal have also received lower ratings may be a warning that if other euro-zone governments do not take timely measures, as well as a wider range of possible ratings cut. Industry insiders estimate that by 2010, euro-zone average public debt to GDP ratio will reach 84%, higher than the 2007 level increased 18 percent, exceeding the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact ceiling of 60% of the provisions, of which Germany in 2010 public debt to GDP, the ratio may reach 78%, while the eurozone's second largest economy in France in 2009 in the third quarter GDP, the ratio of public debt had jumped to a record high of 75.8%. Therefore, the euro zone may be more countries facing lower ratings in 2010 the threat, affecting the stability of the euro zone, thereby damaging the prospects for the euro.

Britain is also very heavy debt burden. United Kingdom in order to save the troubled financial and economic, the total debt burden in 2010 is expected to reach about 80%, while its fiscal deficit in 2010 could reach more than 13%. Moreover, other major countries around the world have entered the recovery from the recession, then, only the British economy in the third quarter of 2009 were still down 0.3%. Therefore, the crushing debt burdens, as well as behind the economic recovery process, will be made up of pounds do not have a solid foundation for the future of sterling in 2010 should not be overestimated.

For the Swiss franc, the future there are ups and downs. Although Switzerland does not burst the euro zone and Britain, as the heavy debt burden, but the Swiss central bank in order to prevent the importation of deflation had in March 2009 and in June the second intervention in the Swiss franc against the euro and the U.S. dollar. The latest production and import of Swiss-year price index is still negative, the consumer price index rising only from the bottom, so to enter 2010, the Swiss tradition of central bank intervention in the exchange rate continue to cast a shadow over the prospects for the Swiss franc.

In addition, the euro, the European energy policy will be constrained its future. Over the past trend of the euro and the international crude oil futures price changes, is closely related to the euro as the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate are fixed to reconcile price index, while the euro zone to reconcile the price of crude oil prices were greatly affected. But in the global economic crisis, the euro-zone economy will be in transition, especially the Copenhagen Conference, the euro-zone advocating low-carbon economy, oil consumption growth in the euro area is limited, the international crude oil futures prices and therefore are subject to space constraints, and not as the first half of 2007 and 2008, as rising violent. Thus, to reconcile the euro area price index in 2010 will not be too drastic rise in the euro zone's benchmark interest rate hike will not be too fast, not from rising interest rates in the euro more effective.

Thus, while the Department of European currencies had been in mid-2009 for some time before and after the shine, but in 2010 they face difficulties.